Russia’s Grip Slips: Ukraine War Accelerates Kremlin’s Decline in the Caucasus
Moscow’s historic dominance over the south Caucasus is unraveling as Azerbaijan rises and Armenia pivots West
On July 10, 2025, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan met for their first-ever direct talks without international mediators, signaling a seismic shift in a region long tethered to Moscow’s geopolitical designs. Once the uncontested power broker in the south Caucasus, Russia is rapidly losing control, as its full-scale war in Ukraine drains resources and undermines its credibility — according to a report by The Economist.
A Crossroads Redrawn by War
Flanked by the Black and Caspian seas, the south Caucasus — encompassing Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia — has long been a fulcrum of empires. But today’s power dynamics are being reshaped not by history, but by Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and the parallel conflict between Iran and Israel. These overlapping crises have weakened Moscow’s hold over its traditional sphere of influence and empowered regional actors to redefine their own futures.
From Enforcer to Bystander
After decades of orchestrating ceasefires and military balances in the Caucasus, Russia’s credibility collapsed in 2023 when its peacekeepers stood idle as Azerbaijan swiftly reclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh — territory that had been under ethnic Armenian control since the 1990s. With its forces stretched thin in Ukraine, the Kremlin had no capacity to intervene.
The swift Azerbaijani victory triggered a cascade: Russian troops withdrew, and Baku began asserting its autonomy, rejecting Moscow’s push to let the FSB control key transport corridors. As Zaur Shiriyev of the Carnegie Endowment put it, Azerbaijan now insists on dealing with Russia “as an equal, not as a subordinate.”
Armenia Shakes Off the Yoke
For Armenia, long dependent on Russia for defense and trade, betrayal became a catalyst. After the 2020 ceasefire imposed by President Vladimir Putin — which allowed Russian troops into the region under the guise of peacekeepers — Armenians watched Russia abandon them again during Azerbaijan’s 2023 offensive.
Rather than deepen its reliance on Moscow, Armenia has moved in the opposite direction. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan visited Istanbul last month in a historic gesture toward reconciliation with Turkey, Armenia’s former adversary. His government is also seeking closer ties with the European Union.
This shift is strategic. “Armenia was de facto a half-colony of Moscow,” said Mikayel Zolyan, a historian in Yerevan. “Russia treated it as an asset in its relationship with Turkey and Azerbaijan.” With 100,000 ethnic Armenians displaced from Nagorno-Karabakh, the trauma may paradoxically free Armenia to rebuild, reorient, and reclaim diplomatic agency.
Moscow’s Influence Hits a Wall
Russia’s weakening grasp was exposed further by a diplomatic row with Azerbaijan. After Russian police detained dozens of ethnic Azerbaijanis in the Urals — with two reportedly tortured to death — Baku retaliated, raiding Russia’s Sputnik office and arresting individuals it claimed were FSB agents. Russian denials did little to calm tensions.
Moscow’s old model — use of conflict to justify peacekeeping, leverage ethnic unrest, and dominate logistics routes — is disintegrating. Azerbaijan now seeks international oversight for key corridors, sidelining Russian security services entirely. Meanwhile, Georgia, once a Western darling, has fallen back into Russia’s orbit, becoming a cautionary tale of democratic backsliding.
Turkey and Israel Fill the Vacuum
As Russia recedes, other powers are stepping in. Turkey and Israel, both strong supporters of Azerbaijan, have increased their influence. Baku is reportedly considering joining the Abraham Accords, strengthening its strategic posture against Iran and deepening ties with the West.
Turkey, for its part, is emerging as the security guarantor for the region — especially if it reopens its long-closed border with Armenia. But Ankara is treading carefully, deferring to Azerbaijan’s demands, including a controversial request that Armenia erase any remaining claims to Nagorno-Karabakh from its constitution.
Putin’s Gamble, the Region’s Pivot
While President Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and EU foreign-policy chief Kaja Kallas have visited the region in recent weeks, Russia has resorted to covert destabilization efforts. Prime Minister Pashinyan said his government thwarted a coup planned for September, implicating pro-Moscow oligarch Samvel Karapetian, who was arrested in June. RT chief Margarita Simonyan labeled Pashinyan an “Antichrist,” amplifying Moscow’s narrative war.
But these tactics may be too late. As Areg Kochinyan, head of a Yerevan security think tank, explained: Russia was once seen as Armenia’s protector. Now it is the threat.
A Diminishing Empire at the Edge
With its armies bogged down in Ukraine, its economy strangled by sanctions, and its diplomacy reduced to coercion, Russia is overextended — and the Caucasus is slipping away. Putin’s vision of a loyal periphery is unraveling as former client states assert independence, forge new alliances, and move beyond Moscow’s shadow.
Whether Armenia and Azerbaijan can formalize peace — and whether Turkey assumes the mantle of regional guarantor — remains uncertain. But the arc is clear: the south Caucasus is no longer Russia’s to command.